# Crisis Interaction Models

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | rating_numeric | 2,048 | 79 | 0.488 |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | rating_numeric | 2,048 | 79 | 0.498 |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | sovereign_spread | 727 | 23 | 0.356 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | Z_1 | 13.8896 | 7.7171 | 0.0720 | * |
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | Z_2 | -1.5674 | 1.1251 | 0.1637 |  |
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | Z_3 | 0.0576 | 0.0453 | 0.2032 |  |
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | post_gfc | -0.0469 | 0.1351 | 0.7283 |  |
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | Z_1_x_post_gfc | 2.7571 | 6.0948 | 0.6511 |  |
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | Z_2_x_post_gfc | -0.4196 | 0.9064 | 0.6434 |  |
| D1: Z×post_GFC → rating | Z_3_x_post_gfc | 0.0171 | 0.0366 | 0.6393 |  |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | Z_1 | 17.0331 | 6.9853 | 0.0148 | ** |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | Z_2 | -2.0309 | 1.0144 | 0.0454 | ** |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | Z_3 | 0.0767 | 0.0408 | 0.0605 | * |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | post_ez | -0.4077 | 0.1282 | 0.0015 | *** |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | Z_1_x_post_ez | -1.7845 | 5.2281 | 0.7329 |  |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | Z_2_x_post_ez | 0.2132 | 0.7718 | 0.7823 |  |
| D2: Z×post_EZ_crisis → rating | Z_3_x_post_ez | -0.0076 | 0.0310 | 0.8052 |  |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | Z_1 | 22.5911 | 13.7972 | 0.1020 |  |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | Z_2 | -3.3357 | 1.8585 | 0.0731 | * |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | Z_3 | 0.1288 | 0.0701 | 0.0664 | * |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | post_gfc | 0.1365 | 0.2118 | 0.5194 |  |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | Z_1_x_post_gfc | -9.6413 | 13.7051 | 0.4820 |  |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | Z_2_x_post_gfc | 1.6372 | 1.8502 | 0.3765 |  |
| D3: Z×post_GFC → spread | Z_3_x_post_gfc | -0.0709 | 0.0699 | 0.3114 |  |